GDP Is A Lie

Ryan Haylett

You ever notice how, no matter how many times you read in the headlines that the economy’s on fire, you hear “GDP hits new highs!” or “Dow breaks another record!”, but your own neighborhood seems to be... well, not on fire. At least, not in the good way. It's almost like there are two Americas: one on the news, all numbers and ticker symbols, and one where your favorite coffee shop boards up its windows overnight. This shit drives me nuts. The so-called “boom” never seems to spill over into the street.

Ryan Haylett

Here’s what’s really going on: GDP, Gross Domestic Product, it’s not measuring who’s winning, it just counts the money moving around, period. Doesn't care if that money lands in the local diner’s cash register or in some mega-corporation's offshore account. So, say ten local stores get bulldozed for another soulless superchain. Prices go up, rents skyrocket, money keeps changing hands, guess what? That’s growth on paper, and GDP goes up. Never mind that local families get squeezed or forced out. Pain, as long as it gets monetized, is just another uptick.

Ryan Haylett

And don’t even get me started on the stock market. Yeah, trading at all-time highs. But it’s mostly the richest ten percent cheering. A big tech company lays off ten thousand people, the share price pops, and cable news calls it a win. A mom-and-pop shop closes? You’ll be lucky if anyone outside the block even notices, let alone the markets.

Ryan Haylett

In many towns, it’s become a hell-scape: bookstores are the owner's side-hustles. The cozy lunch spots cycle through a parade of “now open” and “closed for renovations” signs. Miles of boarded up buildings, complete with mini-casinos. And all the while, experts insist that the economy’s “booming.” Do you feel it? Most of us don't. So how can both of those things be true at the same time? Maybe because we’re measuring all the wrong things.

Ryan Haylett

Small business optimism is such a strange thing. You’ll hear folks say the economy’s heading into rough waters, but in the same breath, they’ll tell you their own business is about to have its best year yet. It sounds contradictory, but it’s really not. Entrepreneurs almost have to live in that space between realism and defiance, they believe they can out-hustle whatever bad news is coming.

Ryan Haylett

There’s a real crack showing in the American Dream lately. More and more people want to keep things small, just themselves, maybe a tiny team. And it’s not about being lazy or lacking ambition. It’s people saying, “You know what? I’d rather build something steady and manageable than chase growth that could sink me.” The ground’s shifting, and they’re adapting, building closer to what they can control. I see it all the time in business; clients who once talked about expansion now talk about simplifying, automating, and holding onto what’s actually working.

Ryan Haylett

The cost pressure is brutal: rent hikes, processing fees up for every little transaction, insurance through the roof. Especially for micro-businesses, ones operating with under ten people, it doesn’t take much to ruin a good year. One bad week, that’s it. You adapt by simplifying, trimming fat, figuring out what pays off now instead of chasing long shots.

Ryan Haylett

I keep hearing the same sentiment from small business owners, it’s not about being untouched by uncertainty, it’s about constitution. Just keep going, even when everything feels unpredictable. It’s less about expansion these days and more about resilience, shrinking the dream just enough to keep it alive.

Ryan Haylett

And of course you know, this is all by design. Big corporations, they don’t just compete; they outmuscle, negotiate the best property deals, get tax breaks, cut shipping rates, even bend zoning rules. They can run at a loss until everyone else is gone, then jack up the prices and call it economic “efficiency.” GDP ticks up, CEOs ring the bell, and the street gets emptier.

Ryan Haylett

Labor adds to the mess. Owners would love to pay and treat people better, but when you’re fighting chains funded by private equity, it’s like bringing a water gun to a wildfire. You see it in the employee turnover, people chasing any gig that at least covers rent or gives them some basic security because, let’s be real, loyalty doesn't keep the lights on anymore. “Productivity” becomes this club, wielded in political arguments as if working harder will save Main Street. But all it means is doing more with less while feeling less secure.

Ryan Haylett

So when somebody says “the economy is strong,” you gotta wonder, strong for who? If you’ve got assets, stocks, or a massive distribution network, you’re golden. For the little guys, who live or die on a couple good weeks of cash flow, the whole thing can feel like drowning in slow motion while everyone else is at the beach. And if you’re barely hanging on, it’s framed as a personal failing, not as evidence that maybe, just maybe, the system itself is tilted.

Ryan Haylett

If an entire block of shops vanishes, that’s not random bad luck. That’s the intended result. It’s not about nostalgia for the “good old days” or empty talk about shopping local. You can’t fix a problem you refuse to measure. If everything looks healthy from 30,000 feet, but nothing works on the ground, we’re living in the oligarchic Matrix, but Keanu Reeves isn't going to save us.